An Intriguing Late Summer/Fall Could Become Exciting

The main Republican contenders are Rudy, John and Mitt. On the Democratic side, they are Hillary, Barack and John. Polls reveal that Democrats are more content with their frontrunners than Republicans are with theirs. However, there are nagging doubts whether any of the three main Democratic contenders can win a general election and serious reservations regarding a Clinton general election run, mostly for that reason. The Republican field is regarded as weak, with no candidate gaining support of the Party's base. In both races, there is significant intrigue building as to whether other candidates will run. In addition, a third-party candidate could have serious repercussions for the major party nominees and perhaps win more support than any third-party efforts to date in our nation's history.

It is becoming more apparent every day that former Senator and "Law & Order" actor Fred Thompson will enter the race. In polling, presupposing Mr. Thompson does run, he either finishes second or tops the field. Given that he has yet to enter, the polling results show not so much core support for Thompson but disenchantment with the current Republican field. Thompson is not a well-known commodity, outside of his acting career. Therefore, he may be initially greeted with skyrocketing poll numbers but they could change significantly once voters begin to learn more about him and his politics. Thompson has played his cards perfectly to date, obtaining positive free publicity throughout the nation without entering the race or spending a dime. Given Mr. Thompson’s right-of-center views, he will likely be able to obtain and keep the support of the Republican base, leaving Giuliani and McCain fighting over the Republican middle and significantly undermining Romney’s chances. If Thompson does run, he will place well in many primaries, will win at least several, and may secure the Republican nomination for President.

Senator Clinton has increased her lead over her Democratic rivals but her general election numbers are still not where they need to be, given her incredibly high name recognition and the fact that most voters have already made up their minds regarding her candidacy. Meanwhile, Barack Obama shows signs of fading, while John Edwards can’t seem to break out of the pack, though he still leads in Iowa. Should their positions remain the same in the Fall, expect another Democrat to enter the race, most likely Al Gore. With the former Vice-President's experience, fundraising ability, and activism with reference to the environment, he can enter on a moment's notice and catapult himself to run in a significant amount of primaries and would win a number of them. Should Al Gore enter the race, he will secure the Democratic nomination for President.

The buzz this past week was the announcement by billionaire Mayor Michael Bloomberg that he was leaving the GOP to become an Independent. While he has said he is not a candidate for President, the positive publicity he has received, his increasingly high name recognition, and his billions make him a formidable candidate in a third-party run for the White House. Mayor Mike could not only frame the debate on many issues, his candidacy would impact the major party nominees. Given Mr. Bloomberg’s executive skills, his popularity as Mayor of New York, and his wealth, whether Bloomberg runs will be determined by who the nominees are for each of the major parties and the mood of the country. If the national mood remains, in which the President and the Congress are receiving record low approval ratings, a third-party run becomes more likely. If the parties nominate Hillary and Rudy, Mike is likely in. If Al Gore is the Democratic nominee, Mayor Mike will probably sit this one out.

As late summer and fall approach, the political intrigue will increase. Expect to see at least one new candidate enter the Presidential race. The more new faces, the more exciting the quest for the White House will become.

Michael M. Shapiro, founder of ShapTalk.com, is an attorney who resides in New Providence, New Jersey. He currently serves as the Chairman of the New Providence Democratic Party and as Editor of The Alternative Press Contact Mike at mike@shaptalk.com