If I’m John Edwards or John McCain or Fred Thompson, I’m feeling pretty good right now. I’m slightly behind the front runners in my Party and the folks who are ahead of me are engaging in an all-out negative assault against each other. That’s where John Edwards and John McCain find themselves in both Iowa and New Hampshire and where Fred Thompson finds himself in South Carolina, the first few key presidential primary states. If I’m either of the Johns or Fred, I run a positive, issue-based campaign through the South Carolina Primary and let the front runners continue to attack each other between now and then.
On the Democratic side, the seemingly unstoppable Hillary Clinton has run into a major problem: the two most appealing factors driving voters to her, her inevitability as the nominee and her ability to beat the Republican nominee, have been eliminated. She is no longer in the lead in Iowa with her likeability registering only in the low 20’s while in head-to-head matchups with possible Republican opponents, she is losing against nearly every choice. Meanwhile, Barack Obama has become the front runner in Iowa and is closing in fast on Mrs. Clinton in New Hampshire. During the past few weeks, these two candidates, who once publicly abhorred negative campaigning, are trading negative barbs on a daily basis. If John Edwards, currently running a close third in both Iowa and New Hampshire, runs a positive campaign from here on out, he will pick up a few points from weak Clinton supporters and a few points from weak Obama supporters. He can then catapult into the lead in both states, leaving Obama in second, and Clinton finishing third in both contests. Then the candidates head south where Clinton’s support is weaker and where both Edwards and Obama can flourish. The end result: the campaign becomes a contest between Obama and Edwards but leaving Clinton as a potential kingmaker (and possible VP or Secretary of State), since whoever she endorses at that point would likely win the Democratic nomination.
Continue reading ShapTalk.com: If I’m Either of the Johns or Fred…Michael M. Shapiro, founder of ShapTalk.com, is an attorney who resides in New Providence, New Jersey. He currently serves as the Editor of The Alternative Press Contact Mike at mike@shaptalk.com